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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 39

Washington Commanders 16 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to BAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP