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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 54

Washington Commanders 16 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to BAL 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS. #83 Daniel Brown deflected the punt

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.48 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP