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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(2:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco scrambles left end pushed ob at BAL 31 for 6 yards (20-G.Toler).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.10 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 75, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model