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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 17-M.Wallace [94-P.Smith]. Mike Wallace (BAL) injured on play.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.11 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP