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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 7 at the 13
Baltimore Ravens 7 – Washington Commanders 6
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The Three Options
GO
+1.83 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.67 EP
- 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK
+2.14 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT
+0.20 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
