Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ATL 33, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.61 EP
59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model