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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

ATL
46.0%
SEA
54.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.331 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.212 EPA/dropback
  • SEA on 7 more days rest than ATL
  • ATL defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ATL

Paul Worrilow LB Out Groin

SEA

Quinton Jefferson DE Out Thumb
Thomas Rawls RB Out Fibula
Kam Chancellor S Questionable Groin
Frank Clark DE Questionable Hamstring
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Wrist
Garrison Smith DT Questionable Oblique

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 24
–
SEA 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:07 TD SEA (2:07) 32-C.Michael right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 08:42 FG ATL (8:42) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 04:36 TD SEA (4:36) 36-A.Collins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – SEA 13
  • Q2 00:46 FG SEA (:46) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ATL 3 – SEA 17
  • Q3 11:07 TD ATL (11:07) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – SEA 17
  • Q3 06:16 TD ATL (6:16) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA-72-M.Bennett was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. ATL 16 – SEA 17
  • Q3 00:26 TD ATL (:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 80-L.Toilolo for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – SEA 17
  • Q4 04:47 TD SEA (4:47) 53-J.Hunt and 79-G.Gilliam reported in as eligible. 32-C.Michael right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 24 – SEA 23
  • Q4 02:02 FG SEA (2:02) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ATL 24 – SEA 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 34%

    (11:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 21%

    (7:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:01) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 17.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 2 yards (14-E.Weems; 80-L.Toilolo).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ATL 33, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 36%

    (11:07) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to SEA 42 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner; 90-J.Reed).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 93%

    (8:42) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to SEA 46, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at 50 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-18-T.Gabriel, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 85%

    (:46) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-N.Frese. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 21 for 11 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (3:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ATL 3, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (11:30) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 15 yards (14-E.Weems; 53-L.Reynolds). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 80%

    (2:02) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Jones (25-R.Sherman) [90-J.Reed].