Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 85

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to SEA 46, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at 50 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-18-T.Gabriel, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model