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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(:46) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model