4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:38) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-N.Frese, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.75 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model