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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to ATL 3, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.07 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP