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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 4-S.Hauschka 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model