Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 15 yards (14-E.Weems; 53-L.Reynolds). PENALTY on SEA-58-K.Pierre-Louis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model