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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 23 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 4-S.Hauschka 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.15 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model