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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 5 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model