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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

BAL
41.2%
NYG
58.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.001 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.037 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BAL

Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
Devin Hester WR Doubtful Thigh
C.J. Mosley LB Doubtful Thigh
Steve Smith WR Doubtful Ankle
Marshal Yanda G Doubtful Shoulder
Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Foot
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Chest
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Back
Kendrick Lewis S Questionable Thigh
Albert McClellan LB Questionable Calf
Rick Wagner T Questionable Thigh

NYG

Nat Berhe S Out Concussion
Marshall Newhouse T Out Calf
Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Eli Apple CB Questionable Groin
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Toe
Rashad Jennings RB Questionable Thumb
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Concussion
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Groin
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
NYG 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:15 FG BAL (10:15) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 06:47 TD BAL (6:47) 28-T.West left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – NYG 0
  • Q2 02:30 TD NYG (2:30) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 82-R.Lewis for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-T.Suggs]. BAL 10 – NYG 6
  • Q3 09:50 FG NYG (9:50) 3-J.Brown 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. BAL 10 – NYG 10
  • Q3 02:32 FG BAL (2:32) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 13 – NYG 10
  • Q3 02:22 TD NYG (2:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – NYG 16
  • Q4 09:19 FG BAL (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 16 – NYG 17
  • Q4 06:04 FG NYG (6:04) 3-J.Brown 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. BAL 16 – NYG 20
  • Q4 02:08 TD BAL (2:08) 28-T.West left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 22 – NYG 20
  • Q4 01:36 TD NYG (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-36-T.Young was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BAL 23 – NYG 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (10:15) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:00) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-L.Webb to BAL 28 for 3 yards (43-B.Rainey). PENALTY on NYG-51-Z.DeOssie, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 28.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 20%

    (3:51) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to NYG 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-D.Harris. PENALTY on BAL-46-M.Cox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 8.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:53) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to BAL 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis. NYG-51-Z.DeOssie was injured during the play. PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BAL 16.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:20) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to BAL 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:21) 4-S.Koch punts 60 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 20 for 5 yards (48-P.Onwuasor, 46-M.Cox).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 50%

    (3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 80-V.Cruz to BAL 30 for 10 yards (22-J.Smith).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 20 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (1:09) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for no gain (84-D.Waller). NYG-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. NYG-31-T.Wade was injured during the play. PENALTY on BAL-42-M.Huff, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 23.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 58%

    (12:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to BAL 27 for 10 yards (36-T.Young).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:50) 3-J.Brown 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:03) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 6 yards (42-M.Huff).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (2:32) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) 28-T.West left end pushed ob at NYG 2 for -1 yards (52-J.Casillas).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:50) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to BAL 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (9:19) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 94%

    (6:04) 3-J.Brown 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 11-K.Aiken to NYG 44 for 22 yards (21-L.Collins).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-36-T.Young was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.