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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard to BAL 27 for 10 yards (36-T.Young).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model