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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 3-J.Brown 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 3, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP