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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP