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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.84 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model