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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 13 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model