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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 20 – Baltimore Ravens 23

What Actually Happened

(1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-36-T.Young was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model