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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to BAL 16, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis. NYG-51-Z.DeOssie was injured during the play. PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at BAL 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP