Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 14

(:52) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-T.Lewis to CAR 29 for 59 yards (8-A.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model