Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- NO defense: +0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- NO on 8 more days rest than CAR
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- CAR defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.177 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.144 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Cam Newton in place of Derek Anderson)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
CAR
NO
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:59 TD NO (8:59) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 82-C.Fleener right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – NO 6
- Q1 02:43 TD NO (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 10-B.Cooks for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 54 CAR 0 – NO 13
- Q2 13:52 TD NO (13:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 6 CAR 0 – NO 20
- Q2 03:07 FG CAR (3:07) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. CAR 3 – NO 21
- Q2 01:19 TD CAR (1:19) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 17-D.Funchess for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 17, YAC 0 CAR 9 – NO 21
- Q2 00:15 FG NO (:15) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Running Into the Kicker, declined. CAR 10 – NO 24
- Q3 06:56 TD CAR (6:56) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton pass short left to 84-E.Dickson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [94-C.Jordan]. Pass 1, YAC 0 CAR 16 – NO 24
- Q3 05:04 TD NO (5:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 82-C.Fleener for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 23, YAC 27 CAR 17 – NO 30
- Q4 14:53 TD CAR (14:53) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – NO 31
- Q4 09:43 TD CAR (9:43) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 30 – NO 31
- Q4 06:10 TD NO (6:10) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 89-J.Hill [99-K.Short]. New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-K.Short]. PENALTY on CAR-99-K.Short, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 8, YAC 0 CAR 30 – NO 37
- Q4 03:04 TD CAR (3:04) 79-C.Scott reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. CAR 36 – NO 38
- Q4 00:16 FG NO (:16) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 38 – NO 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(8:59) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 82-C.Fleener right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%
(5:22) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to NO 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-T.Williams.
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Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 88Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 65%
(4:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 13 yards (19-J.Lampman).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 46%
(3:36) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to NO 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.
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Q1 CAR 4th & 19 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:52) 8-A.Lee punts 61 yards to NO 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-T.Lewis to CAR 29 for 59 yards (8-A.Lee).
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Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 67%
(4:16) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%
(3:07) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.
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Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 33, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 37 for 4 yards (19-J.Lampman).
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Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%
(:15) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
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Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(13:34) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 12 for 4 yards (22-M.Griffin).
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Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(11:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 4 yards (19-J.Lampman).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46% p(FG) 75%
(8:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin to NO 24 for 7 yards (46-K.Crawley). Pass 7, YAC 0
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Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(2:18) 8-A.Lee punts 40 yards to NO 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.
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Q3 NO 4th & 18 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to CAR 39, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to 50 for 11 yards (36-D.Lasco).
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Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 34 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 69%
(:16) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.