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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 21 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. Penalty on CAR-26-D.Worley, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model