Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

(13:34) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 12 for 4 yards (22-M.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
61% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model