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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 84

New Orleans Saints 24 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 36, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 4 yards (19-J.Lampman).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model