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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(8:46) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin to NO 24 for 7 yards (46-K.Crawley). Pass 7, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model