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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 38 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(:16) 3-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model