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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 88

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 6-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 40 for 13 yards (19-J.Lampman).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.62 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP