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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to NO 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP