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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 37

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to CLE 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.45 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model