Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: -0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- TEN offense: -0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- Marcus Mariota (TEN): -0.020 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
CLE
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:42 TD TEN (10:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – TEN 6
- Q1 08:52 FG CLE (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – TEN 7
- Q1 02:12 FG CLE (2:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 6 – TEN 7
- Q2 12:02 TD TEN (12:02) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 13-K.Wright for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 6 – TEN 13
- Q2 00:47 TD CLE (:47) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – TEN 14
- Q3 09:36 TD TEN (9:36) 29-D.Murray left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – TEN 20
- Q4 06:54 TD TEN (6:54) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – TEN 27
- Q4 02:10 TD CLE (2:10) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-K.Dodd]. CLE 19 – TEN 28
- Q4 00:30 TD CLE (:30) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 25 – TEN 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%
(8:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(7:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 29-D.Johnson pushed ob at TEN 26 for 53 yards (45-J.Fowler). PENALTY on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 91%
(2:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 59%
(:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CLE 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 22 for 6 yards (26-A.Andrews).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(14:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 41 for 7 yards (53-J.Schobert; 54-D.Alexander).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 18 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to TEN 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 49 for 4 yards (33-J.Poyer).
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Q2 TEN 4th & 12 at the 37Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 55%
(7:52) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to CLE 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 33-J.Poyer.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:49) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to CLE 46 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on TEN-26-A.Andrews, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 45.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(4:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard. PENALTY on CLE-41-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TEN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 30 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder).
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Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:01) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 27 for 8 yards (41-T.Howard).
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Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 19%
(4:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 29-D.Johnson.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(13:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69%
(5:48) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor to CLE 48 for 14 yards (24-D.Stafford) [99-J.Casey].
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Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 27 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%
(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 16-A.Hawkins pushed ob at TEN 5 for 22 yards (54-A.Williamson).