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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(4:39) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard. PENALTY on CLE-41-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 11.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.02 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model