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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TEN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 30 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model