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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 91

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 48, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model