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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor to CLE 48 for 14 yards (24-D.Stafford) [99-J.Casey].

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model