4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(2:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 16-A.Hawkins pushed ob at TEN 5 for 22 yards (54-A.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP