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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model