Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 29-D.Johnson pushed ob at TEN 26 for 53 yards (45-J.Fowler). PENALTY on CLE-81-R.Higgins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model