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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 47

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model