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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 20:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

IND
44.7%
HOU
55.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.202 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.053 vs Andrew Luck (IND) -0.022 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

IND 20
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

IND

Jonotthan Harrison C Out Illness
Zach Kerr DT Out Ankle
Donte Moncrief WR Out Shoulder
Quan Bray WR Questionable Shin
Darius Butler CB Questionable Hand
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Hip
Patrick Robinson CB Questionable Knee

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Concussion
Stephen Anderson TE Out Hamstring
Quintin Demps S Out Calf
Jonathan Grimes RB Out Ankle
Brian Peters LB Out Quadricep
Will Fuller WR Questionable Hamstring
Kareem Jackson CB Questionable Hamstring
Derek Newton T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 23
–
HOU 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:59 FG IND (5:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 3 – HOU 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 84-J.Doyle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 9 – HOU 0
  • Q2 06:58 FG IND (6:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 13 – HOU 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG HOU (2:00) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. IND 13 – HOU 3
  • Q3 07:09 TD HOU (7:09) 26-L.Miller up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – HOU 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck scrambles left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – HOU 9
  • Q4 07:12 FG IND (7:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. Penalty on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Running Into the Kicker, declined. IND 23 – HOU 9
  • Q4 02:47 TD HOU (2:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 26-L.Miller for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 23 – HOU 15
  • Q4 00:54 TD HOU (:54) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep middle to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-29-M.Adams was injured during the play. His return is Probable. IND 23 – HOU 22
  • Q5 08:13 FG HOU (8:13) 8-N.Novak 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. IND 23 – HOU 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to HOU 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:20) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (5:59) 4-A.Vinatieri 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to IND 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 37%

    (12:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to IND 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (6:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:33) 1-P.McAfee punts 61 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 97%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at HOU 13 for -5 yards (59-W.Mercilus).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 16 for 6 yards (34-T.Ervin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (7:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. Penalty on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 32 yards to HOU 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.