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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 19

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.83 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model