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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 9

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-N.Novak 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 9, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model