Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 79

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 3

(12:33) 1-P.McAfee punts 61 yards to HOU 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model