Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Houston Texans 0

(11:48) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to HOU 10, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.53 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model