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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 62

Houston Texans 9 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-C.Rogers to IND 16 for 6 yards (34-T.Ervin).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model