4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 4-A.Vinatieri 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. Penalty on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model