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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-D.McCullers), Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr, ball out of bounds at PIT 19.

The Three Options

GO +3.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP